Right before redistricting in 2000, two races foreshadowed the battles for the state legislature from 2002 to 2010. In 1998, Laura Ruderman took out Representative Bill Backlund in the 45th district and in 2000, Geoff Simpson took out Rep. Phil Fortunato (by 78 votes!). These two races showed Democrats they could win in the suburbs. By 2008, Democrats held every legislative seat that touched Lake Washington. Simply put, the battle in the last ten years involved the inner ring of suburbs.

Why? Because as those areas became more urbanized, they started to be more socially liberal and care more about public schools. At the same time, Speaker Frank Chopp and the House Democratic Campaign Committee did a great job recruiting candidates who fit suburban districts (Larry Springer, Roger Goodman, Ross Hunter, Marcie Maxwell, Deb Eddy, Judy Clibborn, Pat Sullivan, etc…)

Unless the Republicans keep moderating drastically, these inner ring suburbs should continue to lean democratic.

The next battleground is the outer ring suburban districts. Demographics point to some of these districts experiencing the same political shift that occurred in the inner suburban ring. As density increases, these districts become more socially liberal, more concerned about public schools and less willing to identify themselves with the Republican Party (especially the anti-marriage equality, anti-choice version of the GOP).

These districts include the new 1st Congressional District, the 39th, the new 45th, the 5th, the 31st, the 25th, the 2nd, the 26th, and the 17th in Clark County.

My prediction is these districts get better for Democrats as the next ten years unfold. Just like the inner suburbs got better for Democrats between 2000 and 2010.